Apple Poised to Overtake Samsung as World’s Top Smartphone Maker After 14 Years

For the first time since 2011, Apple is on track to reclaim the title of the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer, dethroning long-time rival Samsung. Fueled by the robust performance of its latest iPhone 17 lineup and a resurgence in key markets like China, the tech giant is projected to capture the top spot in global shipments for 2025.

According to new data from Counterpoint Research, reported by Bloomberg, Apple’s ascent marks a significant shift in the mobile landscape. The company is expected to secure a 19.4% share of the global market by the end of the year, driven by a projected 10% growth in shipments. This surge easily outpaces Samsung’s estimated growth of 4.6% and the broader smartphone market’s expansion of 3.3%.

The iPhone 17 “Supercycle”

The primary engine behind this growth appears to be the iPhone 17 series. Released earlier this fall, the new devices have sparked what analysts are calling a “replacement supercycle.” Data indicates that the iPhone 17 models outsold their predecessors, the iPhone 16 lineup, by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the critical U.S. and Chinese markets.

China, in particular, has been a bright spot for Apple. After facing stiff local competition in recent years, Apple recorded a record-breaking October in the region, with sales jumping 37% year-over-year.

Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang attributes this momentum to a “replacement cycle inflexion point.” Consumers who purchased devices during the pandemic boom of 2020 and 2021 are now upgrading en masse. Additionally, the secondhand market has acted as a gateway for new users entering the ecosystem, with 358 million used iPhones sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds

Beyond hardware appeal, broader economic factors are playing in Apple’s favour. The report cites easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China as a stabilising force for Apple’s supply chain and sales in the region. Furthermore, a weaker U.S. dollar has made iPhones more affordable in emerging markets, boosting international purchases.

Looking Ahead: Foldables and Redesigns

Analysts believe Apple’s momentum is sustainable beyond 2025. The company is reportedly preparing to expand its portfolio significantly over the next two years.

• 2026: Expectations are high for the launch of a budget-friendly iPhone 17e and, potentially, Apple’s first-ever foldable iPhone, a device category Samsung has dominated for years.
• 2027: To celebrate the iPhone’s 20th anniversary, rumours point to a major design overhaul that could further cement Apple’s market leadership.

While Samsung remains a dominant force with its wide range of devices across all price points, 2025 signals a turning point where Apple’s premium-focused strategy has generated enough volume to take the global crown.